Operations and boardings expected to grow at MSP
You’re not imagining it – your latest airplane flight was packed with way more people than it was 10 years ago. Airlines are flying more people in fewer planes – which may feel less comfortable but has an upside in terms of energy efficiency and delaying the need for costly airport expansions.
The Metropolitan Council has released a draft Aviation System Plan for the seven-county metro region. The plan reflects changes in air transportation in the last decade, including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. It also touches on future trends that will affect our region, such as new forms of air transportation for both freight and passengers.
The Metropolitan Airports Commission owns and operates Minneapolis-Saint Paul International Airport (MSP) and six reliever airports. Two additional small airports, Forest Lake and South St. Paul, are owned by their respective cities. The region also has two designated seaplane bases and multiple private turf runways. The airports generate an estimated $7.1 billion (2017, the latest data available) in direct economic impacts to the region.
“Our partnership with the Metropolitan Airports Commission ensures the region has an integrated and efficient transportation system,” said Charles Carlson, director of Metropolitan Transportation Services at the Met Council.
In addition to setting regional aviation policy, the Met Council is charged under state law with reviewing the airport, environmental, and capital plans and programs of the airports owned by the commission.
More people are flying in fewer, quieter planes
Activity at MSP, the region’s major commercial airport, has changed markedly in the last 20 years. Highlights include:
- 2004 was the peak year for total operations. That year, 540,000 planes – including passenger planes, cargo planes, and military operations – took off and landed.
- Since 2004, the number of operations at MSP has slowly decreased, most notably, following the merger of Northwest Airlines with Delta Airlines. In addition, airlines have begun to carry more passengers in larger, more efficient airplanes in fewer flights.
- In the same period, the number of passengers boarding planes at MSP steadily increased – except for 2020. That year, boardings plummeted from nearly 19.8 million in 2019 to 7.4 million.
- Boardings rebounded quickly following 2020 and have grown steadily since. They have not exceeded the 2019 high yet but are expected to soon.
In addition, newer commercial jet engines are more efficient and quieter than their predecessors. The reduction in flights and these engine improvements have led to a general reduction of noise impacts for many neighborhoods around MSP.
Boardings and operations expected to grow to 2050
.jpg.aspx?lang=en-US&width=350&height=233 "Delta Airlines jet takes off from MSP.")
Forecasts in the airports commission’s 2024 Long-Term Comprehensive Plan predict that boardings will grow from 24.1 million in 2030 to 28.1 million in 2040. The Met Council estimates that boardings will reach 29.5 million by 2050.
Operations are also forecast to grow, from 409,800 in 2025 to 509,800 in 2040, and will reach 522,400 by 2050. The growth in operations follows the long-term trend of increasing airline travel, regional population and economic growth, and continued growth in international connectivity.
To attract and handle the expected increase in operations, in the near term the commission plans to improve and expand Terminal 2, with the first phase under construction today to add 2 new gates. These will help meet the fast expansion of Sun Country, an MSP-based low-cost airline, and to eventually attract additional carriers and better balance operations from Terminal 1.
Mid- and long-term plans include additional expansion of Terminal 2, replacement of three concourses at Terminal 1, adding cargo facilities on the west side of the airport, and eventual connection of the terminals behind security.
More transit to MSP is on the way
All the people boarding planes, as well as the 20,000 employees who work at the airport, need to get there efficiently. Highways 5 and 77 and Interstate 494 will continue to serve as the main access to the airport. Two major transit routes – the METRO Blue Line light rail and the Route 54 bus – provide frequent service and opportunities for transfers at many points in Minneapolis and Saint Paul, respectively.
Direct transit access from other points in the region is expanding as well:
- Metro Transit is planning Route 354 to connect east metro communities to the airport from Woodbury.
- The Minnesota Valley Transit Authority’s Route 495 connects MSP to communities south of the Minnesota River, including Shakopee and Savage.
- Southwest Transit runs Route 686 between Eden Prairie and MSP.
Reliever airports serve smaller aircraft
The region’s reliever airports serve general aviation, business, and recreation needs throughout the region. The six commission-owned relievers are operated to shift as much noncommercial aircraft activity away from MSP as possible to ease congestion.
The aviation plan proposes a slight reclassification of Flying Cloud and Anoka Blaine airports. Outside of Saint Paul, they serve the most regular business jet traffic, have greater facility needs, and the greatest number of operations annually. Both airports remain minor airports that will continue to use the existing 5,000-foot runways.
What’s coming our way in the world of aviation
In response to environmental concerns from the major growth in commercial aviation, a planned shift toward Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is taking place locally and globally, which can reduce lifecycle CO₂ emissions of commercial jet fuel by up to 94%. Regional partners like GreaterMSP are spearheading such efforts in Minnesota with the goal of turning Minnesota into a global leader and supplier for SAF.
For general aviation, the transition away from leaded gas is gaining traction, and electrification and hybrid propulsion of small aircraft are being explored. MnDOT Aeronautics recently released their Minnesota Electric Airport Network (MEAN) Plan, which includes multiple metro airports as the best candidates to begin electric aviation operations in the near future.
The region can also expect to see more drones in the skies in coming years. The Federal Aviation Administration is continuing to refine existing regulations and create new ones to manage the explosion of drone use for a variety of purposes, including product delivery. Other regions and cities have already begun to pilot drone delivery for a variety of purposes like pharmaceuticals, small packages, and food.
Another innovative development is advanced and urban air mobility, which includes electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft systems that can replace helicopters in urban areas.
Comment on the Aviation System Plan
The regional aviation plan includes policies to ensure:
- Safety and compatible land uses near airports.
- Community engagement in airport operations.
- Coordinated airport planning and investment.
- Sustainability in aviation operations.
- Other considerations.
In addition to informing the work of the airports commission, the aviation plan provides guidance to cities and townships near the region’s nine publicly owned airports as the communities prepare their local comprehensive land use plans.
The Met Council will hold a public hearing on the draft 2050 Transportation Policy Plan Amendment #2 (the updated aviation plan) at the Transportation Committee meeting at 4 p.m. Monday, Oct. 27 and will receive comments through 5 p.m. Monday, Nov. 10. Register to speak and learn how to comment.
Read the draft Aviation System Plan.