Metro population growth slows, construction strong

Date: Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Map shows most rapid household growth in suburban edge and emerging suburban edge communities.The population of the seven-county Twin Cities region is growing more slowly in the 2020s than it did in the previous decade. But most cities and townships continue to gain population and households, according to the Metropolitan Council’s estimates of 2023 population and households.

The highest growth rates are in what the Met Council calls suburban edge and emerging suburban edge communities – places like Dayton, Victoria, and Lake Elmo. But cities in or near the urban core are still gaining high numbers of people, including Minneapolis, Richfield, and Bloomington. Minneapolis and St. Paul also gained more households than any other city.

Between 2020 and 2023, the metro region’s population grew 1.9% to more than 3.2 million, adding more than 59,000 people. In the 2010s, average annual population growth was a little more than 30,000; so far in the 2020s, the region is adding an average of a little less than 20,000 people each year.

See detailed 2023 population estimates.
 

Housing construction continues to be strong

Housing construction has been robust since 2020, but household growth has slowed, leading to more vacant housing units. About 62,500 housing units were added between 2020 and 2023, but only 48,500 net new households were formed, so overall occupancy rates fell from 95.7% in 2020 to 94.9% in 2023.

Graph shows a fairly steady growth in housing permits issued between 2009 and 2022, with dips in 2014, 2020, and 2022.“Despite the decline in occupancy rates, we still have a very tight housing market in this region, particularly when it comes to housing affordable to people who earn 60% of area median income or less,” said Lisa Barajas, director of the Met Council’s Community Development division. “The increased vacancies tend to be in higher-priced homes and apartments.”

Households are also getting smaller, declining from an average of 2.5 people in the 2010s to 2.46 since 2020. (Household counts do not include institutional units like nursing homes and university dorms.)

What’s accounting for the changed growth in population and households? A few key factors, according to Matt Schroeder, Met Council researcher:
  • Lower birth rates and higher death rates have led to less natural growth in population.
  • In addition, adult children and others are leaving where they have been living to form their own households.
Listen to a presentation about 2023 population estimates.
 

Why the population estimates are important

Under state law, the Met Council is responsible for annual estimates of the region’s population so the state can allocate local government aid and local transportation funding, and for purposes of commercial/industrial tax-base sharing. The Met Council calculates preliminary estimates by June 1; local governments have until June 24 to submit comments; and the estimates are finalized by July 15.

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