Met Council releases final local forecasts

Date: Tuesday, January 7, 2025

Future growth leans toward suburbs

TLine chart compares population, household, and job forecasts from both Thrive MSP 2040 and Imagine 2050 for the City of Chaska.he Metropolitan Council is poised in February to adopt forecasts for local population, household, and job growth for the seven-county Twin Cities region. The Met Council projects the metro region will add 650,000 residents and 324,000 households by 2050, distributed as follows:
  • 33% of net household growth in urban and urban edge communities
  • 23% in suburban communities
  • 38% in suburban edge communities
  • 6% in rural communities
This growth pattern represents a slight shift to the suburbs after the decade 2010-2020, which was the most urban-centered period of development the region has seen in over half a century.

See the updated local forecasts (pdf)
 

Forecasts provide a shared foundation for planning

State law requires the Met Council to develop the forecasts and requires local governments to designate enough land in their local comprehensive plans to accommodate the forecasted growth.

The forecasts also represent a commitment on the part of the Met Council to appropriately scale and stage infrastructure and services that are part of regional systems – such as wastewater service and transportation – to growing communities.

“This process ensures we are all planning for the same future,” said Charlie Zelle, Chair of the Met Council. “We work in partnership with local governments to achieve orderly and efficient growth so that each community, and thus our entire region, can flourish.”
 

Local governments can negotiate forecast adjustments

The Met Council uses a real-estate-market-based model to determine the forecasts. When preliminary forecasts are issued, local governments can review them and ask for adjustments before the Met Council finalizes them.

The local forecasts are embedded in Imagine 2050, the new regional development guide, and included in “system statements.” These documents, customized for each community, inform each local government how it is affected by the Met Council’s policy plans for regional systems – transportation, aviation, water resources, and regional parks and trails.  The Met Council anticipates issuing system statements in fall 2025, following the adoption of Imagine 2050 on Feb. 12.  

Use the local forecast tool

Comprehensive planning in the Twin Cities region

 

Posted In: Planning

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