Long-Range Forecasts
How the region's population, households, and jobs will change by 2050
As directed by state law, the Met Council develops forecasts of when, where, and how much population, household, and job growth the seven-county region and local jurisdictions can expect over a 30-year horizon. These long-range forecasts provide a shared foundation for coordinated comprehensive planning.
The forecasts describe likely and reasoned expectations of regional growth based on an understanding and modeling of regional dynamics. Regional total results were published in April 2023 (see below). Met Council's local forecasting involves the geographic allocation of regional employment and households totals to specific places.The regional forecast is updated every two years; the major update of local forecasts occurs every ten years.
2050 Proposed local forecasts
In 2023, we published the regional total population and jobs forecasts (see below). Following that, we use UrbanSim, a real estate market simulation model, to allocate forecasts to the local level.
In most of the region, the local forecasts are a “clean slate” look at the pattern of likely development. The logic of UrbanSim is the market sorting of real estate demand and creation of new supply in locations that are the most preferred and available. The main determinants of local forecasts are real estate dynamics, location characteristics and amenities, activity patterns and accessibility (travel within the region).
The public comment period for 2050 local forecasts closed October 7.
Imagine 2050 Regional Forecast
The regional forecast looks at the seven-county region’s position within the larger national economy. Our region's business conditions and competitive advantages determine economic and employment levels, which in turn drive population growth by attracting people to the Twin Cities.
Regional Forecast (2023)
| |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
| Population |
2,850,00 |
3,163,000 |
3,364,000 |
3,555,000 |
3,820,000 |
| Employment |
1,541,000 |
1,581,000 |
1,802,000 |
1,895,000 |
2,074,000 |
Thrive MSP 2040 Local Forecasts
Until the 2050 local forecasts are adopted in 2025—in conjuction with Imagine 2050, the next regional development guide—the official, most current local forecasts are available below: