Long-Range Forecasts
How the region's population, households, and jobs will change by 2050
As directed by state law, the Met Council develops forecasts of when, where, and how much population, household, and job growth the seven-county region and local jurisdictions can expect over a 30-year horizon. These long-range forecasts provide a shared foundation for coordinated comprehensive planning.
The forecasts describe likely and reasoned expectations of regional growth based on an understanding and modeling of regional dynamics. Regional total results were published in April 2023. Met Council's local forecasting involves the geographic allocation of regional employment and households totals to specific places. The regional forecast is updated every two years; the major update of local forecasts occurs every ten years.
Local forecasts to 2050 adopted on February 12, 2025
In 2023, we published the population, household, and jobs forecasts for the seven-county Twin Cities region. Following that, we used UrbanSim, a real estate market simulation model, to allocate forecasts to the local level. The logic of UrbanSim is the market sorting of real estate demand and creation of new supply in locations that are the most preferred and available. The main determinants of local forecasts are real estate dynamics, location characteristics and amenities, activity patterns and accessibility (travel within the region). Local forecasts to 2050 were revised again between October and December 2024, with adjustments for some cities.
Imagine 2050 local forecasts were formally adopted by the Metropolitan Councill on February 12, 2025. Accordingly, they replace all previous versions of local forecasts shared since 2023.
Regional Forecast to 2050
The regional forecast looks at the seven-county region’s position within the larger national economy. Our region's business conditions and competitive advantages determine economic and employment levels, which in turn drive population growth by attracting people to the Twin Cities.
Regional Forecast
| |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
| Population |
3,163,000 |
3,364,000 |
3,555,000 |
3,820,000 |
| Household |
1,239,525 |
1,357,300 |
1,454,300 |
1,563,100 |
| Employment |
1,581,000 |
1,802,000 |
1,895,000 |
2,074,000 |
Thrive MSP 2040 Local Forecasts
The final set of local forecasts for Thrive MSP 2040 are published below and denote revisions made due to local comprehensive plan amendments between 2015 and 2024.